Climate Change - Global Warming
Global Warming - temperature increase from 1750
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In 2015 the Paris Climate Change Conference adopted 1.5 C or 2 C degree rise above pre-industrialization levels as goals regarding limitation of greenhouse gas emissions. It seems ambiguous to me what year or temperature defines pre-industrialization and the literature shows some variance in baselines utilized. I prefer 1750 as a baseline since 18th century temperatures were estimated to be fairly consistent. Also 1750 seems more pre-industrial than 19th or 20th century dates.
I have presented 3 charts showing estimated glob al temperature increases since 1750. The first chart shows moving average average global temperature since 1750. The second chart is the same data with the 1750 value subtracted showing the increase in temperature since 1750. Clearly we hav e already reached the 1.5C threshold. The third chart is a repeat of the first one but with a second line showing difference zeroed to average of 1960-90 since some people prefer a more modern or less frightening baseline.
Accelerated warming obviously has occurred in recent decades, and model's estimated forecast suggests this warming is very likely to continue. The third chart is a repeat of the first one but with a second line showing difference zeroed to average of 1960-90 since some people prefer a more modern or less frightening baseline.
Even though we are only in early decades of accelerated global warming, already a number of associated problems have begun to develop, including loss of sea ice, retreat of glaciers, expansion of deserts, more extreme weather events, rise in sea level, and worsening frequency of wildfires. Future decades are most likely to experience additional warming and other climate changes such that associated impacts will become very much more severe.
I am concerned that the magnitude of carbon footprint reduction needed to stop temperature rise is unlikely to be economically or politically viable. While governments and individuals should reduce carbon footprint as fast as practical, I would strongly urge that governments should urgently prepare and fund realistic contingency plans to cope with the climate change impacts. Priority items: flooding, storm and fire damage, displaced populations and disruption of food crops.
2020 Update: My estimate is that we are now about 1.3C above 1750 temperatures. My revised model forecasts 4C by 2100 and over 10C by 2200. Very much hope my model is wrong. But even its lower estimate boundary values are frighting.
2023 Update: Data updated to 2022 plus preliminary estimate form 2023. Also model forecast estimates revised. We have reached the 1.5C above 1750! Every increment warmer will result in greater economic costs from damage to both crops and property. My model now suggests we could reach >10C increase next century.
I have presented 3 charts showing estimated glob al temperature increases since 1750. The first chart shows moving average average global temperature since 1750. The second chart is the same data with the 1750 value subtracted showing the increase in temperature since 1750. Clearly we hav e already reached the 1.5C threshold. The third chart is a repeat of the first one but with a second line showing difference zeroed to average of 1960-90 since some people prefer a more modern or less frightening baseline.
Accelerated warming obviously has occurred in recent decades, and model's estimated forecast suggests this warming is very likely to continue. The third chart is a repeat of the first one but with a second line showing difference zeroed to average of 1960-90 since some people prefer a more modern or less frightening baseline.
Even though we are only in early decades of accelerated global warming, already a number of associated problems have begun to develop, including loss of sea ice, retreat of glaciers, expansion of deserts, more extreme weather events, rise in sea level, and worsening frequency of wildfires. Future decades are most likely to experience additional warming and other climate changes such that associated impacts will become very much more severe.
I am concerned that the magnitude of carbon footprint reduction needed to stop temperature rise is unlikely to be economically or politically viable. While governments and individuals should reduce carbon footprint as fast as practical, I would strongly urge that governments should urgently prepare and fund realistic contingency plans to cope with the climate change impacts. Priority items: flooding, storm and fire damage, displaced populations and disruption of food crops.
2020 Update: My estimate is that we are now about 1.3C above 1750 temperatures. My revised model forecasts 4C by 2100 and over 10C by 2200. Very much hope my model is wrong. But even its lower estimate boundary values are frighting.
2023 Update: Data updated to 2022 plus preliminary estimate form 2023. Also model forecast estimates revised. We have reached the 1.5C above 1750! Every increment warmer will result in greater economic costs from damage to both crops and property. My model now suggests we could reach >10C increase next century.