gross world Product
![Picture](/uploads/4/4/8/0/44800773/published/gwpjuly5-17_2.jpeg?1499280709)
The Gross World Product is the sum of the gross national products for all countries. Two difficulties in estimating the gross world product are that the relative purchasing power of different currencies can change significantly over time, and also the purchasing power of any individual currency change significantly over time. I've attempted to minimize the impacts of fluctuations in purchasing power between and within currencies by averaging several published estimates of gross world product together, and by charting the percent change from each year to the next.
My chart suggests gross world product has been increasing year to year more or less between 1 to 4% averaging about 3% increase per year. My forecast model suggests GWP seems likely to continue to grow through the 21st century but at a progressively slowing rate. Model uncertainty does include possibility of negative growth.
My chart suggests gross world product has been increasing year to year more or less between 1 to 4% averaging about 3% increase per year. My forecast model suggests GWP seems likely to continue to grow through the 21st century but at a progressively slowing rate. Model uncertainty does include possibility of negative growth.
This chart is my attempt to estimate changes in gross world product by stepping away from currencies altogether, and assuming there must be a direct correlation between GWP and total energy consumed. This chart shows the percent year to year change in total world consumption of energy.
Assuming this chart does reflect gross world product, it suggests GWP has averaged some 2% growth over the past 5 decades. The forecast model suggests GWP seems likely to continue to grow through the 21st century but at a progressively slowing rate. Model uncertainty does include the possibility of negative growth.
2017 update: on forecast target ok.
Assuming this chart does reflect gross world product, it suggests GWP has averaged some 2% growth over the past 5 decades. The forecast model suggests GWP seems likely to continue to grow through the 21st century but at a progressively slowing rate. Model uncertainty does include the possibility of negative growth.
2017 update: on forecast target ok.
This third chart compares the direct and indirect estimates of relative annual change to gross world product. True the details differ but I've seem similar differences between other estimates of GWP. To my eye it seems the trends and forecasts are similar regarding the 'big picture'. Also both forecast lines fall within the uncertainty estimates for each other's charts.
2017 update: still fairly good match between the 2 estimates of GWP growth.
2017 update: still fairly good match between the 2 estimates of GWP growth.
Total World Military Expenditures
This chart shows my estimates of total world military expenditures per annum. Quite an eye opener -- modern high-tech military costs hugely more than old steel & guns military. Either that or perhaps the inflation adjustments I used are way out of whack.
Splitting my chart into 3 parts: pre-1930, 1940-present, and forecast. Pre-1930 is also early pre-high tech and much less expensive than the second area as we moved increasingly into a high tech world. The forecast area seems crazy non-sustainable.
Older wars stand our as obvious bumps -- Napoleonic wars, US Civil War, Boar War, First World War, Second World War with relatively low spending between wars. But after the Second World War even between war periods required huge military expenditures.
2017 update: better estimates found for past 2 decades; also modern data changed from decadal to annual. Pre 1990 data remains smoothed decadal. Note forecast model shows less steep slope than previously.
Splitting my chart into 3 parts: pre-1930, 1940-present, and forecast. Pre-1930 is also early pre-high tech and much less expensive than the second area as we moved increasingly into a high tech world. The forecast area seems crazy non-sustainable.
Older wars stand our as obvious bumps -- Napoleonic wars, US Civil War, Boar War, First World War, Second World War with relatively low spending between wars. But after the Second World War even between war periods required huge military expenditures.
2017 update: better estimates found for past 2 decades; also modern data changed from decadal to annual. Pre 1990 data remains smoothed decadal. Note forecast model shows less steep slope than previously.