Fossil fuel derived Energy
petroleum
In the past 50 years consumption of oil has more than doubled. My forecast is that future decades will continue to show consumption increase to record levels but at reduced rate of growth.
2017 & 2018 updates: The updated data are consistent with the prior model.
2019 Update: updated data remain consistent with previous forecast ok; forecast updated & extended to year 2200.
Oct2020: 2019 data remain on forecast.
2017 & 2018 updates: The updated data are consistent with the prior model.
2019 Update: updated data remain consistent with previous forecast ok; forecast updated & extended to year 2200.
Oct2020: 2019 data remain on forecast.
Natural Gas
World consumption of natural gas shows steady growth year to year. Presently we are seeing record high levels of consumption.
Oct10/20: World consumption of natural gas continues to increase 2019>2018>2017>2016.
Oct10/20: World consumption of natural gas continues to increase 2019>2018>2017>2016.
coal
In the 1960s concern about climate change essentially was limited to a few scientists. By year 2000 climate change concern was well documented in both scientific and public publications, with calls for decreased combustion of fossil fuels. Yet consumption of coal has hugely increased since 2000. Encouragingly, consumption of coal decreased in 2015 and again in 2016. But even so we are still close to record high levels of coal consumption! The units chosen were millions tonnes oil equivalents, for convenience of comparison to other fossil fuels.
June 2018 Update: Contrary to last year's forecast, coal consumption in 2017 exceeded that for 2016 though well within forecast uncertainty. Recent coal consumption including 2017 remains slightly below record high consumption. Revised forecast no longer predicts long term decrease in coal consumption .
Oct 2019 Update: World consumption of coal has begun to creep upward consumption in 2018 greater than that for 2017 which in turn ws greater than that for 2016. Forecast model adjusted to reflect this upward creep.
Oct10/20: 2019 Global coal consumption slightly below 2018 con summation. Forecast model returned to flat forecast.
June 2018 Update: Contrary to last year's forecast, coal consumption in 2017 exceeded that for 2016 though well within forecast uncertainty. Recent coal consumption including 2017 remains slightly below record high consumption. Revised forecast no longer predicts long term decrease in coal consumption .
Oct 2019 Update: World consumption of coal has begun to creep upward consumption in 2018 greater than that for 2017 which in turn ws greater than that for 2016. Forecast model adjusted to reflect this upward creep.
Oct10/20: 2019 Global coal consumption slightly below 2018 con summation. Forecast model returned to flat forecast.
all fossil fuels
This chart shows a comparison of consumption of petroleum, natural gas and coal, plus all 3 summed. All 3 types of fossil fuel have increased substantially since 1960, and have continued this increase through decades of warnings about climate change. Presently petroleum is the dominant fossil fuel consumed, coal the second dominant and natural gas the least consumed. However my forecast model suggests natural gas soon may exceed coal and later this century will also exceed petroleum. Consumption of coal presently remains flat.
This chart shows annual world consumption fossil fuels has reached record high levels and that consumption continues to increase year to year. So far there is no significant reduction in consumption in response to scientific warnings of global warming and climate change.
2018 Update: 2017 consumption of fossil fuels exceeded 2016 consumption. Global model forecast significantly higher than prior forecasts.
2019 Update: 2018 global consumption of fossil fuels exceeded 2017 consumption. The long term forecast has been revised upward.
Oct 2020 Update: 2019 consumption exceeded 2018 consumption. Very inadequate response to climate change warning!
2018 Update: 2017 consumption of fossil fuels exceeded 2016 consumption. Global model forecast significantly higher than prior forecasts.
2019 Update: 2018 global consumption of fossil fuels exceeded 2017 consumption. The long term forecast has been revised upward.
Oct 2020 Update: 2019 consumption exceeded 2018 consumption. Very inadequate response to climate change warning!